One week strategy foresight: before the negative factors have gradually digested, spring market is just late?
There was a consensus among analysts this week.Most voices think the negative factors before the festival have gradually weakened, the spring market is just late will not be absent.2, after the festival is expected to rebound?Citic strategy that the current is the bottom of fundamental expectations;Spring Festival holiday effect superimposed overseas risk concerns, before the over-release of risk concentration, mood has already appeared.First of all, the sudden collapse of the group in early January brought about centralized position adjustment and reduction. The external negative events intensified the capital reaction, and the pre-holiday effect further led to the rapid peak of market liquidity pressure, and a series of stable market signals were delayed until the post-holiday fermentation.Second, the combination of policies to stabilize growth is on the way. In the first quarter of this year, the economy will gain momentum in the future.Finally, with the digestion of forced selling and the increase of passive product subscription, market liquidity risk has been fully released, domestic credit risk has been released, the emotional impact of overseas monetary tightening has passed its peak, various emotional indicators have approached the extreme point, and investor panic has been overreleased before the holiday.Construction investment strategy statistics found that in the past 5 trading days investor sentiment index showed a rapid decline, has fallen to the lowest point in nearly three years.Although this does not mean that A shares will rise immediately, but the very poor market sentiment from one side reflects that the market has the basis for A rebound, some positive factors are expected to bring A strong boost to the market sentiment.In addition, CICC strategy also pointed out that the “policy bottom” has been basically confirmed, the “emotional bottom” may be based on the strength and pace of the stable growth policy in the near future, the “growth bottom” is also getting closer, China’s overall growth is expected to bottom out gradually in the first half of the year, under this background, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Chinese market.And the wind strategy points out, or to watch the credit cycle.The credit cycle ultimately determines the direction of the overall valuation of A shares.1, the RRR and interest rate cuts are “signal flares”, but also means, the purpose is to expand credit (social finance volume).In the past few months, large forces continued to be lower than expected, is the main internal cause of the market malaise.2. The credit cycle directly determines the valuation direction of A shares, and there are two transmission paths: (1) The credit cycle determines the current remaining liquidity;② The credit cycle determines A share earnings expectations.3. Considering the emphasis placed by the State Information Office in mid-January on preventing a credit collapse, there is a high probability that credit will start to surge from late January to February. If so, everything will be fine.* Disclaimer: The content of the article is for reference only, does not constitute investment advice * risk tip: the stock market has a risk, enter the market need to be cautious